| Illegal Aliens Resident Population in US (Clandestini negli Stati Uniti) Summary
About 5.0 million undocumented immigrants were residing in the United States in October 1996, with a range of about 4.6 to 5.4 million (See Table 1). The population was estimated to be growing by about 275,000 each year, which is about 25,000 lower than the annual level of growth estimated by the INS in 1994.
California is the leading state of residence,
with 2.0 million, or 40 percent of the undocumented population. The 7
states with the largest estimated numbers of undocumented immigrants--California
(2.0 million), Texas (700,000), New York (540,000), Florida (350,000),
Illinois (290,000), New Jersey (135,000), and Arizona (115,000)--accounted
for 83 percent of the total population in October 1996. The 5.0 million undocumented immigrants made
up about 1.9 percent of the total U.S. population, with the highest percentages
in California, the District of Columbia, and Texas. In the majority of
states, undocumented residents comprise less than 1 percent of the population. Mexico is the leading country of origin, with
2.7 million, or 54 percent, of the population. The Mexican undocumented
population has grown at an average annual level of just over 150,000 since
1988. The 15 countries with 50,000 or more undocumented immigrants in
1996 accounted for 82 percent of the total population. The large majority,
over 80 percent, of all undocumented immigrants are from countries in
the Western Hemisphere. About 2.1 million, or 41 percent, of the total
undocumented population in 1996 are nonimmigrant overstays. That is, they
entered legally on a temporary basis and failed to depart. The proportion
of the undocumented population who are overstays varies considerably by
country of origin. About 16 percent of the Mexican undocumented population
are nonimmigrant overstays, compared to 26 percent of those from Central
America, and 91 percent from all other countries. Background In 1994 the INS released detailed estimates
of the undocumented immigrant population residing in the United States
as of October 1992. Those estimates were useful for a variety of purposes,
including planning and policy development at the national and state level,
evaluating the effects of proposed legislation, and assessing the fiscal
impacts of undocumented immigration. Over the past 2 years, the INS has revised
those estimates and updated them to October 1996. The estimates presented
here incorporate new data on the foreign-born population collected by
the Census Bureau, improvements in the methodology recommended by the
General Accounting Office (GAO), suggestions provided by outside reviewers,
and further analyses of INS' data sources and estimation procedures. Revised
and updated estimates of the undocumented population have been computed
for each state of residence and for nearly 100 countries of origin. Methodology The estimates were constructed by combining
detailed statistics, by year of entry, for each component of change that
contributes to the undocumented immigrant population residing in the United
States. For most countries of the world, the typical way of entering the
undocumented population in the United States is to arrive as a nonimmigrant
and stay beyond the specified period of admission. This segment of the
population, referred to here as "nonimmigrant overstays", constitutes
roughly 40 percent of the undocumented immigrant population residing in
the United States. The rest of the population, more widely publicized,
enter surreptitiously across land borders, usually between official ports
of entry. This part of the population, often referred to as EWIs (entry
without inspection), includes persons from nearly every country, but a
large majority of them are from Mexico; most of the rest are natives of
Central American countries. Primary Sets of Data The figures presented here were constructed
from five primary sets of data. Each set of data was compiled separately
for 99 countries and each continent of origin. 1) Entered before 1982--estimates (as of October
1988) of the undocumented immigrant population who established residence
in the United States before 1982 and did not legalize under the Immigration
Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986. The assumption used to estimate
this part of the population is based on estimates developed by the Census
Bureau using data from the June 1988 Current Population Survey (CPS).
2) Net overstays--estimates for 1982 to 1996
of the net number of nonimmigrant overstays, for 99 countries of origin,
derived from INS data bases. Estimates were derived by: a) matching INS
I-94 arrival/departure records; b) adjusting for the incomplete collection
of departure forms; and c) subtracting the number of nonimmigrant overstays
who subsequently either departed or adjusted to legal resident status. 3) Net EWIs--estimates of the number from
each country who entered without inspection (EWI) and established residence
here between 1982 and 1996. A very large majority of all EWIs are from
Mexico. Average annual estimates of Mexican EWIs were derived by: a) adjusting
the CPS count of the Mexican-born population for underenumeration; b)
subtracting the estimated legally resident population counted in the CPS;
and c) subtracting the estimated number of net overstays. 4) Mortality--estimates of the annual number
of deaths to the resident undocumented immigrant population. The estimates
were derived using an annual crude death rate of 3.9 per 1,000, which
was computed using a modified age distribution of IRCA applicants and
age-specific death rates of the foreign-born population. 5) Emigration--estimates of the number of
undocumented immigrants who resided here at the beginning of a period
(either October 1988 or October 1992), and who emigrated from the United
States in the following 4-year period. Estimates of emigration are based
on statistics published by the Census
Bureau in Technical Paper No. 9 . Construction of the Estimates Estimates of the undocumented immigrant population
were derived for October 1988, October 1992, and October 1996 for 99 individual
countries and for each continent of origin. The calculations were carried
out separately for overstays and EWIs. Estimates by State of Residence In the earlier estimates for October 1992,
the state distribution of the undocumented population was based on the
U.S. residence pattern of each country's applicants for legalization under
IRCA; the results were summed to obtain state totals. This assumed that,
for each country of origin, undocumented immigrants who resided in the
United States in October 1992 had the same U.S. residence pattern as IRCA
applicants from that country. The revised and updated estimates presented
here incorporate the same assumption for the October 1988 undocumented
population. However, it was necessary to develop new methods of deriving
state estimates for October 1992 and 1996 that would reflect more recent
patterns of geographic settlement. As noted, the estimates of the undocumented
population were constructed separately for overstays and EWIs. This permitted
the distribution of the overstay and EWI populations to states using data
most appropriate for the type of population. For overstays, the cohorts
that arrived in the 1988-92 and 1992-96 periods were distributed to state
of residence based on annual estimates of overstays by state of destination
for 1986 to 1989. For EWIs who entered during these periods, the totals
were distributed to state of residence using INS statistics for the early
1990s on the destination of the beneficiaries of aliens who legalized
under IRCA. Limitations Estimating the size of a hidden population
is inherently difficult. Overall, the figures presented here generally
reflect the size, origin, and geographic distribution of the undocumented
immigrant population residing in the United States during the mid-1990s.
The estimates probably reduce the range of error for the total population
to a few hundred thousand rather than a few million, which was the error
range during the late 1970s and into the 1980s. The estimates for most
countries should be fairly precise because they were constructed primarily
from data on nonimmigrant arrivals, departures, and adjustments of status
that have relatively small margins of error. Although the estimates are based on the most
reliable information available, they clearly have limitations. For example,
the estimates make no allowance for students or other long-term nonimmigrants,
and the estimates for some countries could be underestimated because of
special circumstances (e.g., Dominicans entering illegally via Puerto
Rico; ships arriving undetected from China). The figures for some countries overstate the
actual undocumented population. In general, the net nonimmigrant overstay
figures are more likely to be overestimates than underestimates because
the collection of departure forms for long-term overstays who depart probably
is less complete than for those who depart within the first year. The estimates include a large number of persons
who have not been admitted for lawful permanent residence but are permitted
to remain in the United States pending the determination of their status
or until conditions improve in their country of origin. This category
includes many of the undocumented immigrants from El Salvador, aliens
from other countries in a status referred to as "deferred enforced
departure", and IRCA applicants whose cases have not been finally
resolved. In a few cases, the estimates appear to be
too high, but we have no basis for making downward adjustments. For example,
the estimates for the Bahamas appear to be much too large because they
imply that a relatively large proportion of the population is residing
illegally in the United States, whereas large-scale undocumented immigration
from the Bahamas has not been observed previously. In addition, undocumented
immigration from Dominica is considerably higher than would be expected
based on the number of IRCA applicants from Dominica. This overstatement
could have occurred because of processing problems with I-94 arrival/departure
documents, with the result that overstays from Dominica are overestimated
and those from the Dominican Republic underestimated. The number of EWIs is the most difficult component
to estimate with precision, and errors in this component have the largest
effect on the estimated undocumented population from Mexico. In particular,
the shortage of information about two components--emigration of legally
resident immigrants and undercount in the CPS--makes it difficult to derive
acceptable residual estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants
counted in the CPS. The estimates presented here are based on
the most extensive array of figures ever compiled for the purpose; nevertheless,
they should be used with caution because of the inherent limitations in
the data available for estimating the undocumented immigrant population.
This uncertainty was addressed by using alternative assumptions to produce
"high" and "low" population estimates for October
1996. In the following discussion of the estimates, the mid-range population
figures are used for simplicity of presentation. Results National Estimates The total number of undocumented immigrants
residing in the United States in October 1996 is estimated to be 5.0 million
(See Table 1), with a range of about 4.6
to 5.4 million. The estimate for October 1996 is about 1.1 million higher
than the revised estimate of 3.9 million for October 1992; this implies
that the population grew by about 275,000 annually during the 1992-96
period, about the same as the annual growth of 281,000 estimated for the
previous period. The original INS estimates for October 1992 and October
1988, released in 1994, showed average annual growth of 300,000. The undocumented population grows at varying
levels from year to year, but the data available to make these estimates
do not permit the derivation of annual figures to measure year-to-year
changes. However, the similar levels of growth for the 1988-92 and 1992-96
periods, 281,000 and 275,000, respectively, suggest that the overall level
of growth has been fairly constant over the past decade. This also indicates
that the rate of growth of the undocumented resident population has declined
since 1988. State of Residence The estimates for states reflect the well-established
pattern of geographic concentration of undocumented immigrants in the
United States. As expected, California was the leading state of residence,
with 2.0 million, or 40 percent, of the total number of undocumented residents
in October 1996. Seven states--California (2.0 million), Texas (700,000),
New York (540,000), Florida (350,000), Illinois (290,000), New Jersey
(135,000), and Arizona (115,000)--accounted for 83 percent of the population
in October 1996 (See Table 1). The estimated undocumented population of California
has grown by an average of about 100,000 annually since the end of the
IRCA legalization program in 1988. More than 83 percent of total growth
of the undocumented population since 1988 has occurred in the top seven
states. With the exception of Massachusetts (6,000), none of the remaining
43 states grew by more than 3,000 undocumented residents annually. In
27 states, the undocumented population grew by an average of 1,000 or
less each year. Country of Origin Mexico is the leading source country of undocumented
immigration to the United States. In October 1996 an estimated 2.7 million
undocumented immigrants from Mexico had established residence here
(See Table 1). Mexican undocumented immigrants constituted
about 54 percent of the total undocumented population. The estimated population
from Mexico increased by just over 150,000 annually in both the 1988-92
and 1992-96 periods. The estimated number of Mexican undocumented
immigrants who arrived between 1990 and 1996 is based on data on country
of birth and year of immigration collected by the Census Bureau in the
March 1994, 1995, and 1996 Current
Population Surveys (CPS) Demographic analysis of the CPS data indicates
that approximately 230,000 undocumented Mexican immigrants established
residence annually between 1990 and 1996. This is the net annual addition
of undocumented Mexicans who arrived during the period. Note, however,
that it does not reflect the average annual growth of the Mexican undocumented
population. To compute average annual growth it is necessary to subtract
the number of undocumented Mexicans who lived here in January 1990 and
who emigrated, died, or adjusted to legal permanent resident status during
the 1990-96 period. This last step produces the estimate cited above of
just over 150,000 annual growth of the Mexican undocumented population
since 1988. In October 1996, 15 countries were each the
source of 50,000 or more undocumented immigrants (See
Table 1). The top five countries are geographically close to the
United states--Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Canada, and Haiti. Of the
top 15 countries, only the Philippines and Poland are outside the Western
Hemisphere. The estimated undocumented population from Poland has declined
by more than 25 percent, from 95,000 to 70,000, since 1988, possibly reflecting
changed conditions in that country over the last several years. Although undocumented immigrants come to the
United States from all countries the world, relatively few countries add
substantially to the population. The annual growth of the undocumented
population can be grouped into four disparate categories: 1) Mexico, with
more than half of the annual growth, adds just over 150,000 undocumented
residents each year; 2) six countries--El Salvador, Guatemala, Canada,
Haiti, Honduras, and the Bahamas--each add between 6,000 and 12,000 annually;
3) thirteen countries each add about 2,000 to 4,000 annually; and 4) the
remaining approximately 200 other countries add a total of about 30,000
undocumented residents each year (See Table 1).
A large majority of the additions each year, more than 80 percent, are
from countries in the Western Hemisphere. Estimated Illegal Immigrant Population for Top Twenty Countries of Origin and Top Twenty States of
Residence: October 1996
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Last Modified 12/20/2000